Risks, tracked against evidence

Limited non-domestic facilities convert flake to battery-grade spherical graphite; delays here block the entire pathway.

Cell makers require long qualification lead times before switching anode suppliers, extending time to revenue.

Processing facility siting in the Imperial Valley is sensitive to regional water allocation limits.

Security conditions in northern Mozambique introduce logistics and personnel risk for Cabo Delgado sourcing.

Export infrastructure serving Madagascar deposits is less developed than Brazilian alternatives, raising logistics risk.

Vein graphite deposits typically yield lower volumes than flake sources, limiting scale-up potential.

Planned rail expansion serving Tanzania deposits is not yet complete, creating a timing dependency.

Continued reliance on Brazil as the primary source region concentrates geopolitical and trade-policy exposure.

A Gulf Coast processing site would be exposed to seasonal hurricane risk affecting operations and logistics.

Canadian critical-minerals incentive programs supporting the Ontario site are subject to policy change.

An in-country Brazilian processing site would require capital deployment in a jurisdiction with currency volatility.

Purification capacity remains concentrated in a small number of non-domestic facilities, mirroring the spheronization bottleneck.

Initial uncertainty in purification throughput benchmarking has been resolved via direct facility audit.

A domestic purification line has not yet been demonstrated at the scale required for full program volume.

Both primary and alternative spheronization facilities are located in the same broad region, limiting true diversification.

Cell Maker A's anode line qualification timeline has slipped relative to the original program schedule.

Cell Maker B's anode line has limited spare capacity for a new material qualification cycle.

An independent anode producer being evaluated as an alternative has limited operating history.

Port of Santos has experienced periodic congestion affecting bulk export schedules.

Port of Beira's bulk handling infrastructure is less developed than alternative regional ports.

The Southern California rail corridor has adequate current capacity but limited headroom for peak-volume years.

The Vitória-Minas railway is shared with other commodity exporters, introducing scheduling risk.

Long Beach bonded warehouse capacity has not yet been contractually secured for program volumes.

The candidate feedstock warehouse site has not been confirmed against final processing-site layout.

Routing through a European transshipment point would add cost and transit time versus direct shipment.

Grid interconnection studies for the processing site have not yet been completed, creating schedule risk.

The candidate solar array supplementing site power has not yet secured land use approval.

An initial title review question on Parcel A has been resolved with no outstanding issues.

Parcel B is farther from existing rail access, which would require additional inland transport infrastructure.

Water allocation for the processing site depends on an unresolved regional negotiation among existing users.

California DTSC review timelines for comparable chemical-handling facilities have historically extended past initial estimates.

Imperial County zoning approval is proceeding on schedule but is not yet finalized.

Federal wetlands review tied to water infrastructure could extend the overall permitting timeline.

Processing-site emissions would need to comply with Salton Sea Air Basin monitoring requirements.

Colorado River Delta habitat considerations could introduce cross-border review requirements.

A European offtake customer's qualification requirements have not yet been fully scoped.

Grid storage integrator demand volume is less certain than primary battery-cell offtake.

Sulfuric acid supply for purification currently depends on a single candidate supplier.

Petroleum coke feedstock pricing for the synthetic hedge pathway has shown recent volatility.

Department of Energy loan guarantee approval timing and terms remain uncertain.

Prepayment facility terms are still under negotiation and could affect capital structure assumptions.

The critical minerals production tax credit is subject to future policy change.

Mozambique's regulatory and export policy environment for critical minerals is still developing.

Madagascar's export policy for graphite has been broadly stable but is not contractually locked in.

Colorado River allocation is fully subscribed to agricultural use; any industrial siting decision must account for this before land or power availability.

Direct lithium extraction from geothermal brine has not yet been demonstrated at commercial scale at this specific site.

Calexico crossing capacity is adequate today but sensitive to periodic congestion that could affect cross-border logistics scenarios.

New geothermal and solar generation cannot reach industrial load faster than the transmission backbone can be upgraded — the chokepoint is transmission capacity, not generation capacity. This constrains the power arm, the semiconductor candidate site, and the battery materials candidate site simultaneously.

Any reduction in agricultural water use to free capacity for industrial siting cascades through the Agricultural Water District's allocation process and is affected by cross-border New River flow conditions — a change in one is not isolated from the other two.

The semiconductor fabrication candidate site is simultaneously constrained by water allocation and transmission capacity, meaning resolving only one constraint would not be sufficient to unblock siting.