Atlas/Scenarios
Scenario Workspace

Scenarios, compared side by side

Each scenario states its benefits, risks, dependencies, and the evidence that supports it. Atlas evaluates scenarios against current evidence — it does not predict which one will occur.

Demo
All Scenarios
SC-ADomestic Processing
Active
Graphite America

Build a domestic processing facility against imported flake from multiple source regions.

Benefits
  • +Reduces dependency on a single non-domestic processing supplier
  • +Creates a controllable, auditable domestic pathway
  • +Positions for future domestic incentive programs
Risks
  • –High capital cost
  • –Long permitting timeline
  • –Energy cost exposure
Dependencies
Imperial Valley Processing Site (candidate)Imperial Irrigation District (power)Union Pacific Rail Corridor
Evidence coverage4 / 19 (21%)
  • EV-002 — Imperial Valley region has existing industrial power and rail infrastructure relevant to materials processing.
  • EV-006 — Port of Long Beach has existing bulk materials handling infrastructure.
  • EV-008 — Water availability is a material siting constraint in the Imperial Valley.
  • EV-009 — Existing geothermal power generation in the Imperial Valley could offset processing energy load.
SC-BImport Intermediate Product
Active
Graphite America

Import partially processed (spheronized) material and complete only final purification and coating domestically.

Benefits
  • +Lower upfront capital requirement
  • +Faster time to qualification
  • +Leverages existing non-domestic spheronization capacity
Risks
  • –Continued dependency on concentrated non-domestic capacity
  • –Exposure to trade policy shifts
Dependencies
Spheronization Facility (non-domestic)Coating & Finishing SupplierBulk Graphite Storage TerminalInland Trucking Logistics Provider
Evidence coverage4 / 19 (21%)
  • EV-001 — Battery-grade anode graphite processing capacity is geographically concentrated outside North America.
  • EV-005 — Synthetic graphite production is energy-intensive relative to natural flake processing.
  • EV-010 — Bulk storage terminal capacity appears sufficient for initial import volumes.
  • EV-011 — Inland trucking capacity may require multi-carrier contracts during ramp-up.
SC-CJoint Venture
Exploratory
Graphite America

Form a joint venture with a source-region producer to co-invest in processing capacity.

Benefits
  • +Shares capital and permitting risk
  • +Aligns incentives with source-region supply
  • +Potential preferential offtake terms
Risks
  • –Governance and control complexity
  • –Cross-border regulatory exposure
  • –Longer negotiation timeline
Dependencies
Brazil Flake Deposit AArgentina Exploration Block
Evidence coverage1 / 19 (5%)
  • EV-003 — Brazil and Argentina have documented flake graphite deposits at varying development stages.
IVS-ACo-located Lithium and Power
Active
Imperial Valley Corridor

Site lithium extraction and battery component manufacturing directly against existing geothermal power generation to minimize new transmission needs.

Benefits
  • +Uses existing power infrastructure rather than building new transmission
  • +Shortens the supply chain between mineral extraction and manufacturing
  • +Aligns with existing geothermal operator interest
Risks
  • –Water allocation remains a binding constraint regardless of siting
  • –Commercial-scale lithium extraction from brine is not yet proven at this site
Dependencies
Salton Sea Geothermal FieldLithium Valley Extraction Site (candidate)Regional Battery Component Plant (candidate)Imperial Irrigation District (power arm)
Evidence coverage2 / 19 (11%)
  • IVE-002 — Salton Sea geothermal field has both existing generation capacity and unextracted lithium-bearing brine.
  • IVE-003 — Direct lithium extraction from geothermal brine is technically demonstrated but not yet at commercial scale in this specific location.
IVS-BCross-Border Manufacturing Integration
Exploratory
Imperial Valley Corridor

Integrate Imperial Valley material supply with existing Mexicali manufacturing capacity via the Calexico crossing.

Benefits
  • +Leverages existing cross-border manufacturing relationships
  • +Distributes capital cost across two jurisdictions
  • +Existing rail and freight infrastructure already connects the two sides
Risks
  • –Cross-border regulatory and tariff exposure
  • –Border crossing congestion could bottleneck throughput
Dependencies
Mexicali Industrial CorridorCalexico Border CrossingUnion Pacific Rail Corridor (Imperial Valley segment)
Evidence coverage2 / 19 (11%)
  • IVE-005 — Calexico border crossing has existing commercial freight capacity but is subject to periodic congestion.
  • IVE-008 — Existing rail corridor has spare freight capacity relative to current regional industrial volume.
IVS-CWater-Constrained Siting
Active
Imperial Valley Corridor

Treat water allocation, not land or power, as the primary siting constraint and evaluate all industrial development against it first.

Benefits
  • +Addresses the most binding regional constraint directly
  • +Reduces risk of stranded investment in water-unavailable parcels
Risks
  • –May rule out otherwise attractive sites early
  • –Requires renegotiation or reallocation of existing agricultural water rights
Dependencies
Colorado River Allocation (Imperial Irrigation District)Imperial Valley Irrigated FarmlandUndeveloped Industrial Land Parcels
Evidence coverage3 / 19 (16%)
  • IVE-001 — Colorado River allocation to Imperial Irrigation District is fixed by long-standing agreement and is fully subscribed for agricultural use.
  • IVE-004 — Irrigated farmland accounts for the large majority of current regional water use, framing the siting tradeoff for industrial users.
  • IVE-007 — Several parcels are zoned for industrial use but lack committed water or power allocations.
Compare Scenarios
vs
Domestic ProcessingActive

Build a domestic processing facility against imported flake from multiple source regions.

Benefits
  • +Reduces dependency on a single non-domestic processing supplier
  • +Creates a controllable, auditable domestic pathway
  • +Positions for future domestic incentive programs
Risks
  • –High capital cost
  • –Long permitting timeline
  • –Energy cost exposure
Dependencies
Imperial Valley Processing Site (candidate)Imperial Irrigation District (power)Union Pacific Rail Corridor
Evidence coverage4 / 19 (21%)
  • EV-002 — Imperial Valley region has existing industrial power and rail infrastructure relevant to materials processing.
  • EV-006 — Port of Long Beach has existing bulk materials handling infrastructure.
  • EV-008 — Water availability is a material siting constraint in the Imperial Valley.
  • EV-009 — Existing geothermal power generation in the Imperial Valley could offset processing energy load.
Import Intermediate ProductActive

Import partially processed (spheronized) material and complete only final purification and coating domestically.

Benefits
  • +Lower upfront capital requirement
  • +Faster time to qualification
  • +Leverages existing non-domestic spheronization capacity
Risks
  • –Continued dependency on concentrated non-domestic capacity
  • –Exposure to trade policy shifts
Dependencies
Spheronization Facility (non-domestic)Coating & Finishing SupplierBulk Graphite Storage TerminalInland Trucking Logistics Provider
Evidence coverage4 / 19 (21%)
  • EV-001 — Battery-grade anode graphite processing capacity is geographically concentrated outside North America.
  • EV-005 — Synthetic graphite production is energy-intensive relative to natural flake processing.
  • EV-010 — Bulk storage terminal capacity appears sufficient for initial import volumes.
  • EV-011 — Inland trucking capacity may require multi-carrier contracts during ramp-up.
Recent Activity
Demo
Scenario Compared2026-02-23

Co-located Lithium and Power compared against Water-Constrained Siting in the scenario workspace.

Scenario Created: Water-Constrained Siting2026-02-20

Water-Constrained Siting scenario drafted, treating water allocation as the primary constraint.

Scenario Created: Cross-Border Manufacturing Integration2026-02-18

Cross-Border Manufacturing Integration scenario drafted against the entity graph.

Scenario Created: Co-located Lithium and Power2026-02-16

Co-located Lithium and Power scenario drafted against the entity graph.

Scenario Compared2026-02-15

Domestic Processing compared against Import Intermediate Product in the scenario workspace.