Scenarios, compared side by side
Each scenario states its benefits, risks, dependencies, and the evidence that supports it. Atlas evaluates scenarios against current evidence — it does not predict which one will occur.
Build a domestic processing facility against imported flake from multiple source regions.
Trades higher upfront capital and a longer permitting timeline for long-term control over the processing pathway and eligibility for domestic incentive programs. Most attractive if capital and permitting timelines can be de-risked early; least attractive under tight near-term cost or schedule constraints.
- +Reduces dependency on a single non-domestic processing supplier
- +Creates a controllable, auditable domestic pathway
- +Positions for future domestic incentive programs
- –High capital cost
- –Long permitting timeline
- –Energy cost exposure
- EV-002 — Imperial Valley region has existing industrial power and rail infrastructure relevant to materials processing.
- EV-006 — Port of Long Beach has existing bulk materials handling infrastructure.
- EV-008 — Water availability is a material siting constraint in the Imperial Valley.
- EV-009 — Existing geothermal power generation in the Imperial Valley could offset processing energy load.
Import partially processed (spheronized) material and complete only final purification and coating domestically.
Trades long-term dependency on concentrated non-domestic spheronization capacity for materially lower upfront capital and a faster path to qualification. Most attractive as a bridge strategy while domestic processing capacity is built out; least attractive as a permanent end state given concentration risk.
- +Lower upfront capital requirement
- +Faster time to qualification
- +Leverages existing non-domestic spheronization capacity
- –Continued dependency on concentrated non-domestic capacity
- –Exposure to trade policy shifts
- EV-001 — Battery-grade anode graphite processing capacity is geographically concentrated outside North America.
- EV-005 — Synthetic graphite production is energy-intensive relative to natural flake processing.
- EV-010 — Bulk storage terminal capacity appears sufficient for initial import volumes.
- EV-011 — Inland trucking capacity may require multi-carrier contracts during ramp-up.
Form a joint venture with a source-region producer to co-invest in processing capacity.
Trades negotiation complexity and shared governance for shared capital exposure and potential preferential offtake terms. Most attractive if a source-region partner with aligned incentives can be identified quickly; least attractive if negotiation timelines slip and delay overall program schedule.
- +Shares capital and permitting risk
- +Aligns incentives with source-region supply
- +Potential preferential offtake terms
- –Governance and control complexity
- –Cross-border regulatory exposure
- –Longer negotiation timeline
- EV-003 — Brazil and Argentina have documented flake graphite deposits at varying development stages.
Site lithium extraction and battery component manufacturing directly against existing geothermal power generation to minimize new transmission needs.
Trades unproven extraction technology risk for a shorter, more capital-efficient supply chain that reuses existing power infrastructure. Most attractive if the pilot extraction program de-risks technology quickly; least attractive if water allocation blocks siting regardless of power co-location.
- +Uses existing power infrastructure rather than building new transmission
- +Shortens the supply chain between mineral extraction and manufacturing
- +Aligns with existing geothermal operator interest
- –Water allocation remains a binding constraint regardless of siting
- –Commercial-scale lithium extraction from brine is not yet proven at this site
- IVE-002 — Salton Sea geothermal field has approximately 400 MW of installed generation capacity across 11 operating plants, with brine assays indicating lithium concentrations of 200–400 mg/L — among the highest documented geothermal brine grades in North America.
- IVE-003 — Direct lithium extraction (DLE) has been piloted at sub-commercial scale (under 1,000 tonnes LCE/year) by at least two operators in the basin; no facility in the region has yet reached the 20,000+ tonne annual scale assumed in early feasibility work.
Integrate Imperial Valley material supply with existing Mexicali manufacturing capacity via the Calexico crossing.
Trades cross-border regulatory and congestion exposure for shared capital cost and use of already-connected rail and freight infrastructure. Most attractive if tariff and crossing-congestion risk can be actively managed; least attractive under deteriorating cross-border trade conditions.
- +Leverages existing cross-border manufacturing relationships
- +Distributes capital cost across two jurisdictions
- +Existing rail and freight infrastructure already connects the two sides
- –Cross-border regulatory and tariff exposure
- –Border crossing congestion could bottleneck throughput
- IVE-005 — Calexico border crossing has existing commercial freight capacity but is subject to periodic congestion.
- IVE-008 — Union Pacific's Imperial Valley segment operates at an estimated 35–40% of rated freight capacity based on 2025 regional rail plan data, leaving meaningful headroom before new siding or double-tracking investment would be required.
Treat water allocation, not land or power, as the primary siting constraint and evaluate all industrial development against it first.
Trades the risk of ruling out otherwise-attractive sites early for materially lower risk of stranded investment. Most attractive as a screening-first discipline applied before any capital commitment; least attractive if it delays time-sensitive siting decisions relative to competing regions.
- +Addresses the most binding regional constraint directly
- +Reduces risk of stranded investment in water-unavailable parcels
- –May rule out otherwise attractive sites early
- –Requires renegotiation or reallocation of existing agricultural water rights
- IVE-001 — IID holds a Colorado River entitlement of approximately 3.1 million acre-feet annually under the 1934 water rights compact, currently allocated at over 97% to agricultural use with no unallocated industrial reserve.
- IVE-004 — Irrigated farmland accounts for the large majority of current regional water use, framing the siting tradeoff for industrial users.
- IVE-007 — Several parcels are zoned for industrial use but lack committed water or power allocations.
| Metric | Domestic Processing | Import Intermediate Product |
|---|---|---|
| Cost | 5 | 2 |
| Risk | 3 | 4 |
| Lead Time | 30 mo | 12 mo |
| Water | 4 | 2 |
| Power | 3 | 2 |
| Permitting | 5 | 2 |
| Cross-Border Logistics | 2 | 4 |
| Strategic Resilience | 5 | 2 |
Domestic Processing rationale — Cost and permitting complexity driven by EV-002, EV-008, EV-041, EV-043 (domestic siting and permitting evidence); resilience score reflects reduced dependency on non-domestic processing capacity per EV-001.
Import Intermediate Product rationale — Lower cost and faster lead time supported by EV-001, EV-005 (existing non-domestic capacity); risk and resilience scores reflect the concentration risk documented in R-004 and R-009.
Build a domestic processing facility against imported flake from multiple source regions.
Trades higher upfront capital and a longer permitting timeline for long-term control over the processing pathway and eligibility for domestic incentive programs. Most attractive if capital and permitting timelines can be de-risked early; least attractive under tight near-term cost or schedule constraints.
- +Reduces dependency on a single non-domestic processing supplier
- +Creates a controllable, auditable domestic pathway
- +Positions for future domestic incentive programs
- –High capital cost
- –Long permitting timeline
- –Energy cost exposure
- EV-002 — Imperial Valley region has existing industrial power and rail infrastructure relevant to materials processing.
- EV-006 — Port of Long Beach has existing bulk materials handling infrastructure.
- EV-008 — Water availability is a material siting constraint in the Imperial Valley.
- EV-009 — Existing geothermal power generation in the Imperial Valley could offset processing energy load.
Import partially processed (spheronized) material and complete only final purification and coating domestically.
Trades long-term dependency on concentrated non-domestic spheronization capacity for materially lower upfront capital and a faster path to qualification. Most attractive as a bridge strategy while domestic processing capacity is built out; least attractive as a permanent end state given concentration risk.
- +Lower upfront capital requirement
- +Faster time to qualification
- +Leverages existing non-domestic spheronization capacity
- –Continued dependency on concentrated non-domestic capacity
- –Exposure to trade policy shifts
- EV-001 — Battery-grade anode graphite processing capacity is geographically concentrated outside North America.
- EV-005 — Synthetic graphite production is energy-intensive relative to natural flake processing.
- EV-010 — Bulk storage terminal capacity appears sufficient for initial import volumes.
- EV-011 — Inland trucking capacity may require multi-carrier contracts during ramp-up.
Co-located Lithium and Power compared against Water-Constrained Siting in the scenario workspace.
Water-Constrained Siting scenario drafted, treating water allocation as the primary constraint.
Cross-Border Manufacturing Integration scenario drafted against the entity graph.
Co-located Lithium and Power scenario drafted against the entity graph.
Domestic Processing compared against Import Intermediate Product in the scenario workspace.