Project 002 · Understand How This Decision Was Made
Determine water allocation pathway before site selection
Decide whether new industrial water demand will require reallocation, efficiency gains, or a new supply source before any site is finalized.
Review
Everything below reflects exactly what was known as of 2026-02-22 — the evidence available, the risks on record, and the reasoning that followed. Nothing here has been revised with hindsight.
Decision Rationale
HighNo rationale recorded for this decision.
Supporting Evidence Cited
| ID | Date | Category | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IVE-001 | 2026-02-10 | Water Rights | High | IID holds a Colorado River entitlement of approximately 3.1 million acre-feet annually under the 1934 water rights compact, currently allocated at over 97% to agricultural use with no unallocated industrial reserve. |
| IVE-004 | 2026-02-15 | Agriculture | Medium | Irrigated farmland accounts for the large majority of current regional water use, framing the siting tradeoff for industrial users. |
Evidence Available Then
8 records existed as of 2026-02-22| ID | Date | Category | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| IVE-008 | 2026-02-21 | Logistics | Union Pacific's Imperial Valley segment operates at an estimated 35–40% of rated freight capacity based on 2025 regional rail plan data, leaving meaningful headroom before new siding or double-tracking investment would be required. |
| IVE-007 | 2026-02-20 | Land Use | Several parcels are zoned for industrial use but lack committed water or power allocations. |
| IVE-006 | 2026-02-19 | AI Infrastructure | At least one hyperscale data center developer has conducted a non-binding site visit citing geothermal power availability, per regional economic development office disclosures; no land option or power purchase agreement has been confirmed. |
| IVE-005 | 2026-02-17 | Logistics | Calexico border crossing has existing commercial freight capacity but is subject to periodic congestion. |
| IVE-004 | 2026-02-15 | Agriculture | Irrigated farmland accounts for the large majority of current regional water use, framing the siting tradeoff for industrial users. |
| IVE-003 | 2026-02-14 | Critical Minerals | Direct lithium extraction (DLE) has been piloted at sub-commercial scale (under 1,000 tonnes LCE/year) by at least two operators in the basin; no facility in the region has yet reached the 20,000+ tonne annual scale assumed in early feasibility work. |
| IVE-002 | 2026-02-12 | Energy | Salton Sea geothermal field has approximately 400 MW of installed generation capacity across 11 operating plants, with brine assays indicating lithium concentrations of 200–400 mg/L — among the highest documented geothermal brine grades in North America. |
| IVE-001 | 2026-02-10 | Water Rights | IID holds a Colorado River entitlement of approximately 3.1 million acre-feet annually under the 1934 water rights compact, currently allocated at over 97% to agricultural use with no unallocated industrial reserve. |
Risks Known Then
3 risks logged as of 2026-02-22Border crossing congestion
Calexico crossing capacity is adequate today but sensitive to periodic congestion that could affect cross-border logistics scenarios.
MediumMonitoring
Unproven commercial-scale lithium extraction
Direct lithium extraction from geothermal brine has not yet been demonstrated at commercial scale at this specific site.
MediumOpen
Water allocation constraint
Colorado River allocation is fully subscribed to agricultural use; any industrial siting decision must account for this before land or power availability.
HighOpen
Unknown Factors
No unknown factors recorded for this decision.
Outcome
Outcome not yet recorded — this decision may still be open.
Lessons Learned
No lessons learned recorded for this decision.