Project 001 · Understand How This Decision Was Made
Monitor Mozambique policy developments
Monitor Mozambique's regulatory and export policy developments relevant to sourcing risk.
Review
Everything below reflects exactly what was known as of 2026-08-04 — the evidence available, the risks on record, and the reasoning that followed. Nothing here has been revised with hindsight.
Decision Rationale
LowNo rationale recorded for this decision.
Supporting Evidence Cited
| ID | Date | Category | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV-053 | 2026-04-22 | Logistics | High | Railway operator has publicly committed to a capacity expansion completing in 2028, which would postdate this program's initial ramp-up period. |
Evidence Available Then
109 records existed as of 2026-08-04| ID | Date | Category | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV-109 | 2026-07-08 | Market | Battery-grade spherical graphite FOB China pricing rose a cumulative 4.2% over three consecutive weeks ending 2026-07-06, the longest sustained increase since early 2025 — superseding the prior stable-allocation assessment with direct evidence of tightening non-domestic spheronization capacity. |
| EV-107 | 2026-07-07 | Permitting | Inland Trucking Logistics Provider's onboarding process and typical multi-carrier contracting timeline have been documented to support ramp-up planning. |
| EV-106 | 2026-07-06 | Financial | Bulk Graphite Storage Terminal lease terms are under review as part of program capital planning, with quoted rates broadly consistent with regional bulk storage market rates. |
| EV-105 | 2026-07-03 | Logistics | Coating & Finishing Supplier's logistics throughput has been benchmarked against two comparable Asia-Pacific facilities serving other North American battery-materials programs. |
| EV-104 | 2026-07-02 | Technical | Union Pacific's technical capacity audit for the relevant corridor segment is consistent with the publicly reported figures cited in the California State Rail Plan. |
| EV-103 | 2026-07-01 | Infrastructure | Imperial Irrigation District's infrastructure assessment confirms existing substation capacity is sufficient for the initial processing-site load, though full build-out would likely require the separate SCE interconnection under evaluation. |
| EV-102 | 2026-06-30 | Market | Cell Maker B has expressed measurable interest in a secondary supply relationship, contingent on Cell Maker A's qualification outcome and pricing benchmarks. |
| EV-101 | 2026-06-29 | Permitting | Cell Maker A's qualification review process follows a documented 9-step protocol with a typical end-to-end timeline of 7–10 months based on its published supplier onboarding guide. |
| EV-100 | 2026-06-26 | Financial | Port of Long Beach lease and terminal-use terms for the volumes this program would require are still under negotiation as part of broader program capital planning. |
| EV-099 | 2026-06-25 | Logistics | Non-domestic spheronization throughput has been benchmarked at approximately 45,000 tonnes annually against the three alternative facilities evaluated in this program (Qingdao, Ningbo, Heilongjiang). |
| EV-098 | 2026-06-24 | Technical | Independent technical audit of the Imperial Valley candidate site confirmed the proposed process flow diagram is consistent with publicly disclosed capacity figures for comparable purification and coating operations. |
| EV-097 | 2026-06-23 | Infrastructure | Argentina Exploration Block's infrastructure assessment found the nearest paved road access ends approximately 22 km from the deposit, implying additional unsealed-road haulage cost not present at the Brazilian sites. |
| EV-096 | 2026-06-22 | Market | Brazil Flake Deposit A has an active offtake discussion with two candidate cell makers, though neither has progressed to a signed letter of intent as of this evidence date. |
| EV-095 | 2026-06-19 | Regulatory | Madagascar's export tax on unprocessed graphite is currently 2% of declared value, unchanged since 2019, providing more export-cost predictability than some alternative jurisdictions. |
| EV-094 | 2026-06-18 | Regulatory | Mozambique's Mining Law framework requires a minimum 20% government free-carry interest in mining concessions, a structural feature not present in Brazilian or Argentine mining codes. |
Showing 15 of 109 records available at replay time.
Risks Known Then
44 risks logged as of 2026-08-04Madagascar jurisdictional policy risk
Madagascar's export policy for graphite has been broadly stable but is not contractually locked in.
LowMonitoring
Mozambique jurisdictional policy risk
Mozambique's regulatory and export policy environment for critical minerals is still developing.
MediumOpen
Production tax credit policy risk
The critical minerals production tax credit is subject to future policy change.
MediumMonitoring
Offtake prepayment structuring risk
Prepayment facility terms are still under negotiation and could affect capital structure assumptions.
LowMonitoring
Federal loan guarantee approval uncertainty
Department of Energy loan guarantee approval timing and terms remain uncertain.
MediumOpen
Synthetic feedstock cost volatility
Petroleum coke feedstock pricing for the synthetic hedge pathway has shown recent volatility.
LowMonitoring
Process chemical supplier concentration risk
Sulfuric acid supply for purification currently depends on a single candidate supplier.
MediumOpen
Grid storage customer volume uncertainty
Grid storage integrator demand volume is less certain than primary battery-cell offtake.
LowMonitoring
Unknown Factors
No unknown factors recorded for this decision.
Outcome
Outcome not yet recorded — this decision may still be open.
Lessons Learned
No lessons learned recorded for this decision.