Atlas
Project 001 · Understand How This Decision Was Made

Approve Mozambique sourcing feasibility study

Scope a feasibility study on Mozambique flake sourcing given security and logistics considerations.

Draft
Everything below reflects exactly what was known as of 2026-05-20 — the evidence available, the risks on record, and the reasoning that followed. Nothing here has been revised with hindsight.
Decision Rationale
Medium

No rationale recorded for this decision.

Supporting Evidence Cited
IDDateCategoryConfidenceNotes
EV-0122026-02-24GeologyHighIndicated resource estimated at approximately 18 million tonnes at 8.2% carbon (Cg), large-flake dominant, based on 2024 diamond drilling results.
Evidence Available Then
74 records existed as of 2026-05-20
IDDateCategoryNotes
EV-0732026-05-20PermittingCounty planning staff confirmed in a pre-application meeting that no general plan amendment would be required for the current site configuration, reducing procedural risk.
EV-0722026-05-19PermittingImperial County's zoning approval process for the relevant land use classification has historically required a public hearing period of 60–90 days, per county planning department procedural guidelines.
EV-0712026-05-18PermittingDTSC pre-application consultation, where used by comparable applicants, correlated with an average 20% reduction in total review time in a sample of 14 similar California facility permits.
EV-1082026-05-15MarketNon-domestic spheronization allocations were reported as broadly stable through Q2 2026, with no material tightening observed in available trade reporting.
EV-0702026-05-15PermittingDTSC's published median permit review time for comparable Category III chemical handling facilities was 27 months for permits issued between 2021–2025.
EV-0692026-05-14Water RightsHistorical allocation negotiations of comparable scope in the Colorado River basin have taken 3–7 years to resolve, per state water authority case history.
EV-0682026-05-13Water RightsColorado River allocation negotiations involve at least four other claimant parties beyond the Imperial Irrigation District, per public filings with the California State Water Resources Control Board.
EV-0672026-05-12Land UseParcel B sits roughly 6 miles from the nearest rail spur, versus direct rail access at Parcel A, implying an estimated $4–6 million incremental cost for a dedicated rail connector if selected.
EV-0662026-05-11Land UseParcel B is approximately 40% larger than Parcel A but is zoned M-1 (light industrial), which would require a use variance for chemical processing activities.
EV-0652026-05-08Land UseParcel A is zoned M-2 (heavy industrial) under current Imperial County code, which permits chemical processing use without a zoning variance.
EV-0642026-05-07Land UseParcel A title review, completed in Q1 2026, identified one recorded easement for an existing irrigation canal that would need to be relocated or engineered around during site development.
EV-0632026-05-06InfrastructureLand lease terms for utility-scale solar in Imperial County have been quoted in the range of $800–1,200 per acre annually based on recent comparable transactions.
EV-0622026-05-05InfrastructureCandidate solar array site has average annual insolation among the highest in the continental U.S. per NREL resource data, supporting a favorable capacity factor estimate of approximately 32%.
EV-0612026-05-04InfrastructureInterconnection cost estimates from SCE's publicly available fee schedule suggest $12–18 million in network upgrade costs could be allocated to this project depending on final queue position.
EV-0602026-05-01InfrastructureSouthern California Edison's published interconnection queue shows a current average study-to-energization timeline of approximately 3.5 years for comparable industrial loads in the region.

Showing 15 of 74 records available at replay time.

Risks Known Then
44 risks logged as of 2026-05-20
Madagascar jurisdictional policy risk

Madagascar's export policy for graphite has been broadly stable but is not contractually locked in.

LowMonitoring
Mozambique jurisdictional policy risk

Mozambique's regulatory and export policy environment for critical minerals is still developing.

MediumOpen
Production tax credit policy risk

The critical minerals production tax credit is subject to future policy change.

MediumMonitoring
Offtake prepayment structuring risk

Prepayment facility terms are still under negotiation and could affect capital structure assumptions.

LowMonitoring
Federal loan guarantee approval uncertainty

Department of Energy loan guarantee approval timing and terms remain uncertain.

MediumOpen
Synthetic feedstock cost volatility

Petroleum coke feedstock pricing for the synthetic hedge pathway has shown recent volatility.

LowMonitoring
Process chemical supplier concentration risk

Sulfuric acid supply for purification currently depends on a single candidate supplier.

MediumOpen
Grid storage customer volume uncertainty

Grid storage integrator demand volume is less certain than primary battery-cell offtake.

LowMonitoring
Unknown Factors

No unknown factors recorded for this decision.

Outcome

Outcome not yet recorded — this decision may still be open.

Lessons Learned

No lessons learned recorded for this decision.